Senate Concurrent Resolution 43 reflects the importance of the growing Latin American origin population to California's welfare and future. It recognizes the achievements and contributions this population has made to the social, cultural, and economic life of all Californians. And it is based in growing acknowledgment that full participation of the Latino¹ population in all aspects of society is critical to the future of all Californians.

The Latino population represents many national, educational, linguistic, and cultural backgrounds, and experiences widely varying levels of prosperity and success in California. The families of some have lived in California since long before it was part of the United States, but many others are recent arrivals. Regardless of their diversity, Latinos contribute significantly to the economic and cultural richness of the State. Their numbers will continue to increase; they will likely comprise more than one-third of California's population by the beginning of the next century. However, low incomes and low levels of educational attainment characterize a high proportion of this segment of the population. With SCR 43, we seek solutions to the many problems which face California's Latino population. SCR 43 raises issues which are extremely urgent, complex and emotionally-charged. But the preparation of the State to meet the economic and societal challenges of the future is the major concern of the resolution, and of this report.

Understanding California's Latino population, especially in the context of the extraordinarily diverse society and economy California has become, is essential to the resolution of many challenges the State now faces. Californians must also understand that the realities of life for large segments of the Latino population of the State imply society's acceptance of standards which are inconsistent within our civilization, our ethics, our humanity and our hopes for the future. It is time for the State to acknowledge the needs and potential of its Latino population, for they are imperative to California's growth and advancement.

The California Latino Population

More than eighty percent of the California Latino population originates in Mexico and in the long-established Mexican American communities of this State. Latinos include also immigrants from many different Central American, Caribbean, and South American countries. Together, they are a reflection of the highly polycultural societies of Latin America. Mexican immigrants themselves represent many different ethnic groups and diverse regions.

The communities in which such populations have settled include small rural enclaves, mid-sized cities located in agricultural centers, and large urban areas where over eighty percent of Latinos reside. Each setting presents different opportunities to its residents, depending upon the capabilities of the local structure to provide basic community services and employment.

The continuing renewal of immigration signifies that the economic and political problems of the sending countries affect California as well. Immigration reflects the human desire for freedom, peace, opportunity and prosperity. In this light, the resolution suggests that we need to understand better the character and evolution of the migratory movements from Latin America, especially Mexico and Central America, in order to deal more appropriately with their implications for the United States, and California in particular.

Despite the implementation of the Immigration Reform and Control Act, and its special provisions related to California agriculture, the numbers of legal and undocumented immigrants in California will increase. Historically, California has encouraged immigration into the State to supply labor for its agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors. Thus, the State must also assume responsibility for the development of public policy to address the needs of the immigrant population.

At the same time, we must recognize that many U.S.-born descendants of Latin American immigrants progress slowly toward full participation in California society, faced with the

legacies of and persistence of discrimination in schools, workplaces, and the community.

SCR 43 asked the University of California to turn its intellectual power toward a full understanding of the issues related to our Mexican, Mexican American and other Latin American origin population, to help the State of California to address the factors which impede their success, and to assist in the development of public policy which will accelerate and assure their full participation in the State's political, economic and social processes in the future. For example, if the generally low level of educational success achieved by Latinos in California persists, by the beginning of the next century the State will possess an expanding undereducated population, a low-skilled labor force, a large proportion of low-income earners, and a substantial number of citizens unprepared to participate fully in governmental decisions.

The Changing California Population

There are many common threads which weave the fabric of the diverse population of California. In this report, we focus necessarily upon that segment of the population we call Latino, but many of the recommendations contained here, if implemented, will benefit all of the State's residents. Indeed, a driving force for the initiation of SCR 43 has been the recognition that the future prosperity of all residents in the State is inextricably linked to the condition of the Latin American origin population. As a basis for all that follows in this report, it is important to appreciate the nature and strength of this link.

Many Californians are aware that the population of the State, like that of the country, is becoming older. Projections for both the State and the country indicate that by the year 2030, nearly one person out of every four will be 65 years of age or older. This is the result of the aging of the large Baby Boom population, whose life expectancy will increase over that of previous generations. Projects such as the Carnegie Corporation's Aging Society Project have outlined the effects that growing numbers of older citizens will have on society:

Productivity overall will decline, as the elderly begin to leave the labor force. From 1940 to 1980, the trend has been for workers to leave the workforce at increasingly younger ages.

There will be increased need for income support for the elderly. Whether supplied through the public or private sector, income of the elderly will have to be maintained, if not increased.

There will be increased need for medical and health care services. The elderly require expensive medical services. With more people living longer, the demand and costs for services will increase.

State and local government will be required to assume increasing shares of the support required. Private sector programs (e.g., pension funds) will pay out enormous sums. The younger generation comprising the new labor force will be primarily responsible for the economic growth and governance of the State, and they will have to shoulder the needs of the aging Baby Boomers.

The rapid pace of Latino population growth is generally known, but analysts often underestimate or neglect the link between the Latino population increase and the aging of the Baby Boomer generation. The Latino population is younger than the non-Latino population. Thus Latinos will, in the near future, become the dominant element in the younger labor force.

A brief analysis of the growth of the Latino population easily demonstrates that it represents one of the most important resources to be developed over the next ten to fifteen years. Although the State's non-Indian population was over ninety percent Latino in 1848, the sudden influx of European immigrants and Americans during the Gold Rush reduced that figure dramatically. By 1940, barely five percent of the state was Latino (about 300,000 out of a total population of 6.6 million). However, labor force trends and economic ties to Mexico that intensified early in the 20th century led to a near doubling of the Latino population every ten years after 1950.

Two major demographic forces contributed to increased representation of Latinos in the California population: Anglo infertility and Mexican/Latin American immigration. Latino fertility has been historically higher than Anglo fertility. The Baby Boom, lasting from approximately 1946 to 1964, was the exception to nearly 80 years of declining Anglo fertility. From 1964 to 1988, the period of the so-called Baby Bust, fertility was at its lowest point ever recorded. Although Latino fertility is bound to decline as well, the disparity between growth rates is projected to remain for several decades. Given some modest assumptions about fertility and immigration, a reasonably conservative estimate of Latino population growth would be from 5.6 million in 1985 to 12.3 million by 2030, or from 21 percent to 38 percent of the total population. This growth will be concentrated in the younger age group categories. (See Figures 1.1 and 1.2.)

However we wish to vary the assumptions, there will likely be significant Latino population growth at the time of the aging of the Baby Boom generation. By the year 2010, California society in all likelihood will become highly stratified by age and ethnicity.

Basis for Social Policy

Given the need for social support of the elderly, one must pose two very important questions about the future work force:

First, will it have the political will to provide the essential social services and financial support necessary to maintain the population? Will it be enlightened enough to transfer adequate amounts of income to the elderly?

Second, will it have the productive capacity to generate sufficient economic growth to meet the needs of the elderly, and maintain the vigor of the California economy?

An honest assessment of the State's current human resource situation underscores the urgency of these questions.

Currently, as is generally recognized, Latinos lag behind Anglos in areas of education, employment,- income, and political participation. Yet Latinos represent a critical source for the collective welfare of the State. California must embark upon a strategy of policies to ensure that by 2010 Latinos and other minorities are fully participating in society and leading it in many new and increasingly international economic and cultural directions.

Economic challenges to the State heighten recognition of the need to define economic strategies to better address California's position in the world economy. In particular, the condition and changing composition of the State's labor force represent key policy concerns for public interest groups, government agencies, and private entities. Recently issued reports emphasize the importance of a skilled and educated labor force for the State's future competitiveness in an expanding economy.

While the California economy today shows signs of continued strength, lack of attention to human capital needs, social investment, and infrastructure could severely limit future growth and development.

Economic concerns and demographic projections may draw our attention to these questions, but we must not ignore basic underlying and difficult social concerns: issues such as equal opportunity, educational services, and the improvement of the physical, material and mental health of the California population. These are not issues to be easily dismissed with superficial understanding and quick fix responses. A thorough understanding of these questions will be reflected in changes in the most basic philosophies which drive the State's policy decisions.

The University's Role

SCR 43 specifically requested that the University undertake a major research effort to address these critical issues, drawing upon various sources of expertise in order to contribute to the formation of public policy. In this report, an assessment is provided of the University's capabilities and resources to carry out long-term research efforts in these areas. In addition, this

report identifies those research areas in which new or expanded work should immediately be undertaken.

The research which is needed not only will increase our understanding of problems, but serve to suggest the means to resolve them. It must be based on a more active coordination of information and data gathering, and organization of the data that will allow for an understanding of regional, sectoral, generational, and gender distinctions over time. It must address California economic trends, State fiscal and economic policy, the changing role of women in California, and specifically that of Latin American origin women, social services, other social trends, private and public sector investment strategies, civic participation, and the educational policy and practices of the State. Most importantly, it must speak to increasing the mutual understanding of people of diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds.

The University of California's current role in the development of policy is relatively undefined. While faculty members may serve as consultants, or may be personally inclined to perform research and present it in ways that make it accessible to non-experts and to law-makers and professionals, this is not the University's basic mission. A significant issue for the SCR 43 Task Force, and one basic to the intent of SCR 43, then, is to determine the ways in which the University can transmit and interpret new knowledge in policy-relevant forms. In the chapters which follow, these themes are explored with reference to the specific issues raised by SCR 43-- that is, the California economy, human resources subjects such as education, health, welfare, and criminal justice, and immigration and settlement patterns. Important and related issues are defined in terms of the research agendas which need to be developed and pursued to answer the most basic questions raised by the resolution, and to determine how the faculty of the University may be encouraged or enabled to perform the basic research, within existing or new structures, the state needs to meet the challenges of the future.

Throughout the discussions of the working groups and the development of this report, a single theme has emerged as the most important single element in resolving several imperative problems the State now faces: education. In the most rudimentary terms, education leads to a skilled work force, which leads to a thriving economy, which increases the wealth of the population and reduces unemployment and the accompanying demands on health, welfare and criminal justice systems. Many excellent reports which draw this essential conclusion have recently been developed by various organizations of the State and the country, and they have contributed much to the work of the SCR 43 Task Force.

In this report, however, the Task Force also seeks to address questions with implications for the quality of intellectual and cultural life in California as well. While the generation of more skilled workers and a thriving economy are critical to California's future, there are deeper issues that challenge the intellectual and philosophical bases of the decisions made in the State which affect the lives of all of its residents. The intellectual traditions of the cultures which combine in California can lead us to more creative and effective public policy in the State. We must not only attempt to understand these traditions; we must build upon that understanding to forge a new California intellectual tradition which can guide us into the new century.

This report is the work of the SCR 43 Task Force, established and supported by University of California President David Pierpont Gardner in the fall of 1987. The report reflects the diverse professional and ethnic composition of the Task Force itself. Through many working meetings held throughout the state in the last year, academics, public officials, health, education, criminal justice and other professionals and administrators have brought their experience, expertise and insights together to address the issues presented by SCR 43, with particular emphasis on the role each perceives the University of California should play in the exploration of the issues and the development of public policy to address them. In this report, the University of California's SCR 43 Task Force concentrates its recommendations in those areas where action on the part of the University will benefit the State's ability to address the challenges presented by the Latino population. These recommendations are grounded in the University's research, teaching and public service missions and in its academic and ethical principles. The Task Force has addressed many of the underlying factors and issues which influence the status of Latinos in California today, and has attempted also to set forth some reasonable projections of the implications these hold for California's immediate future.

It must be emphasized that the University of California, or any other institution of higher education and research in the State, or, indeed, any other agency in the State, does not hold isolated responsibility for the correction of the State's societal or economic problems. The University is only one of the many resources the State may employ to develop public policy.

The Task Force encourages widespread review of the discussions of immigration and settlement patterns, the California labor force, health, education, criminal justice, and Latina issues which follow in this report. The Task Force has not addressed separately in this report other topics which are of concern with respect to the State's Latino population, including political participation, social welfare, housing, transportation, and essential natural resources. But these are issues which should be explored in any future effort which builds upon the work begun in this report.

For this report is only a small beginning, even when joined together with many other recent reports which are referenced here. This report focuses necessarily on the University of California, as others have focused on private industry in the State, or K-12 education. The members of the Task Force believe that the complete understanding of the problems, and realization of the possibilities, of our Latino population will require much more work, many more resources, and much more leadership, than have yet been expended. And the Task Force believes that the rewards, for the State and for its people, will be worth the effort.

1. Throughout this report, the term "Latino" or "Latin American Origin'" will appear and will encompass the many elements of the California population addressed by SCR 43, including Mexicans, Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Central Americans, and South Americans, as well as those who may prefer identification as Hispanics, Chicanos, Spanish-speaking, or persons of Spanish surname. When the latter terms are used, they are intended to identify specific sub-groups of the Latino population appropriate to the context. Chapter 2, "Defining the Latino Population," addresses the multiplicity of terms and their implications for policy.